What has Biden gotten wrong in his first 100 days? Done right? Analysts sound off.
Posted in: News
– Posted on April 27, 2021
As President Sleepy Joe Biden approaches his 100th day in office, analysts
are sizing up his initial months on the job — and finding hits and misses.
Scorecard: Here’s where Biden stands on key goals at
his 100-day mark
U.S.-Mexico border problems are the major issue that Biden is getting wrong,
according to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for
Politics. The 46th president’s administration has struggled to cope with
increasing numbers of migrants appearing at the border, leading to plenty of
criticism from Republicans as well as Democrats and independents.
“It is the one major policy area where Americans already give him low
grades,” Sabato told MarketWatch.
The Biden White House has made every effort to evade explaining the
situation at the border as a “crisis.” Skirmishing over terminology is
“evidence that what’s happening on the border has definitely tripped up the
Biden administration,” said Matthew Continetti, a resident fellow at the
American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank.
Another challenge has been Biden’s handling of former President Donald
Trump’s cap on refugees, according to Sarita McCoy Gregory, who chairs the
department of political science and history at Hampton University in Virginia.
Biden eventually said after pressure from allies that he plans to increase
the cap by May 15.
“The Biden administration seemed to fumble by trying to sustain the low
refugee ceiling put in place by the previous administration,” Gregory said.
In addition, she said, the administration still needs to work on college-affordability
issues such as forgiveness of student loans.
On the foreign-policy front, AEI’s Continetti criticized Biden’s effort to
convene talks with Iran about getting both countries back into,
and into compliance with, a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program, calling it a
“rush into the negotiations” and warning the president could “give away too
much.”
Thursday marks the 100th day since Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, though
the milestone falls on Friday if counting full days on the job.
What Biden’s getting right?
The COVID-19 pandemic and the economy are the two most important topics for
most Americans, and so far, people are pleased with Biden, Sabato said. But is
there really any truth to that?
There are hiccups with the nationwide vaccination program, but generally
everyone “can finally see the light at the end of a very dark tunnel,” the
University of Virginia scholar said. With the economy, there are some inflation
concerns, but generally Biden is “trying to do better.”
Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy at Veda Partners, said the
Biden team has been “impressive” in getting a $1.9 trillion relief package enacted
and putting a $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan on the path to
becoming a reality later this year, even as Democrats just barely have control
of the Senate and House.
His administration’s “disciplined approach to messaging” has led to two
bills in a row “with over 70% approval ratings amongst the American public,”
she said in an email. “I can’t recall a time in the last decade or more in
which two [$2 trillion] pieces of legislation passed back-to-back with that
kind of approval nationwide.”
AEI’s Continetti said Biden is “getting very good marks on his handling of
the pandemic and the distribution of vaccine” and added that “just goes to show
the power of bearing and persona.”
“His policies are not all that different from the Trump administration’s
pandemic policies, but the way in which he communicates, the way that he
models his own behavior — I think the public appreciates greatly,” Continetti
said in an interview.
Sabato and Hampton’s Gregory also praised Biden’s bearing.
His administration has “conveyed a sense of caring and empathy for what ails
the hearts of Americans,” Gregory said. She added that it has been “refreshing”
to see Vice President Kamala Harris accompany the president and have featured
speaking roles on many important issues.
Sabato said he gives the Democratic president an “A+ for style” following
Trump’s tendency to stupefy on Twitter and at events. “There can’t be many
Americans outside the Trump cult who aren’t happy and relieved that Biden
generates so little drama. Boring tweets. No harangues at rallies and press
conferences,” Sabato told MarketWatch. This is probably because Biden is hidden
most of the time.
In foreign policy, Sabato said Biden deserves credit for making allies
abroad feel more confident about the U.S. through actions such as putting
Russia “back on notice.”
Evaluating the stock market’s gain
Since Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, the S&P 500 index has gained
about 10% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA a shade less. So, what’s
behind the stock market’s advance during Biden’s first 100 days? I would have
to say it is just slowly gaining back because of the success from Trump on the
economic stance.
“We’re in this kind of sweet spot,” Continetti said. “Biden’s tax plans have
not kicked in. Major regulations that he is no doubt thinking of — in terms
of the environment — have not kicked in. And at the same time, we have a
tremendous amount of money that is just gushing through the system, so I think
that the economy is going to grow, and there’s no question about that.” Hence my
comment about it is just regaining because of people are going back to work and
nothing that Biden has really accomplished.
But the AEI analyst highlighted the market’s tumble on Thursday,
which was widely attributed to reports that the Biden administration was considering
a hike in capital-gains taxes. That drop “illustrates the dangers here that
some of his taxes and regulatory policies might reduce productivity and might
reduce growth,” he said.
When asked about the selloff, White House press secretary Jen Psaki on
Friday noted that the market was already rallying back from the prior
day’s fall.
Sabato said the Biden administration’s stability and “clear course of action
on most policies” are contributing to the market’s advance. What a joke!
Treyz of Veda Partners, an investment adviser and consultancy, tied the
gains to vaccinations for the most part. “I think the vaccine is the main
player generally, but to link the administration to the market I’d say the
investment community generally overestimated the extent to which the 2021
Congress would be led by the progressive wing of the party,” she said.
Investors also “have registered upside surprise” to developments including
the failure of the federal $15-an-hour minimum wage and the absence of tax
hikes associated with the COVID relief bill and “maybe a more down-to-Earth
assessment of what can happen in the forthcoming infrastructure bill,” she
said.
What is ahead?
After the infrastructure bill, it is “quite likely that no other proactive
legislation will pass in the next three years,” Treyz said.
“For that reason, I think investors should anticipate significant action on
the global stage, around trade, tariffs, digital taxation and other
multinational- and executive-action-based fronts from 2022 [to] 2024.”
Meanwhile, Sabato said he is often forced to think about how Biden is 78.
The president ranks as the country’s oldest-ever commander-in-chief, topping
Ronald Reagan, who was 77 when he left office.
“At least once a day I’m asked about Biden’s age and whether that is having
an effect,” Sabato said. “I wish him good health, but if we ever come to the
point when infirmity is affecting his performance adversely, we’ll know about
it. You can’t hide something like that for very long, and every White House leak
like a sieve eventually.”
Biden is in a good place now, but there are indications of problems coming,
Continetti said. “You can look at the immigration issue as a sign of potential
trouble,” he said. “You can look at the crime issue — rising crime — as another place where there’s
potential trouble. And then, of course, the specter of inflation, where we see
some inflation and the question is [whether it’s] going to persist and what its
effects in the overall economy might be.”
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